Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
